What appear to be the 5 best bets and the best picks against the spread going into the NFL Conference Championships?

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It’s argued that this is the best Sunday of the season. Conference Championship Sunday has two Super Bowl-level matchups, it’s all about the anticipation of what’s next, and this time around, we get two special games with four amazing quarterbacks.

What are the five best-looking bets on the board? It’s all about finding the potential value, so when it comes to these – as opposed to our Picks Against The Spread pieces which just looks at the games themselves – it’s all about confirming or denying something you already believe, or maybe sparking an idea for something that just might work.

Again, value, value, value. It might be a long shot, but let’s start with …

5. Tampa Bay at Green Bay

LOWEST SCORING TEAM: Packers +400, Chiefs +325, Chiefs +325, Bills +200
PICK: Packers +400
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line

As a warning, this pick goes against a whole lot of personal beliefs.

I believe Green Bay will win. I also believe that – and it’ll be a theme later in this – that the key to making these special types of investments is to take the most likely outcome that gives you value.

The most likely of the two outcomes in the two games is for the Bills to lose to the Chiefs. Tampa Bay vs. Green Bay is a wee bit more of a toss-up – even though the lines are close to the same for both home teams – assuming Patrick Mahomes really is okay.

So the smart call here for the lowest scoring team of the four is Bills +200. There’s good value even if it’s the worst among the four teams.

Yes, Green Bay has been an offensive powerhouse and yes, it just hung up 32 on – statistically – the best defense in the NFL in the win over the Rams. However, maybe there’s a shot that Tampa Bay just has this Packer thing figured out.

It seems like it was a million years ago, but in Week 6 the Buccaneers held Green Bay to its lowest scoring game of the season in the 38-10 win. The Packers couldn’t keep the Tampa Bay D line from hitting Aaron Rodgers, with the high-powered O only coming up with 201 yards.

Tampa Bay is No. 1 in the NFL against the run, eighth in scoring defense, and it’s coming off a brilliant performance against the Saints in the 30-20 win.

Remember, this bet isn’t necessarily about one side shutting down another. It’s about winning first, and then hoping the other game is bit more of a shootout.

You can’t go wrong with believing that any of the four teams make sense for this, but the world is offering you a shot at +400 ….

NEXT: Two running backs hitting 40 yards

After a fun day of football Saturday, we have two more games scheduled Sunday with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Cleveland Browns and the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers playing for a third time this season. To get you ready for the games, we have created a three-leg parlay to enjoy Sunday. Below, we make our NFL Divisional Round parlay predictions.

NFL Divisional Round parlay picks and predictions

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated 11:30 a.m. ET.

Leg 1: Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs -10 (-105)

The Browns have been one of the league’s best stories this season. After back-to-back seasons in which they earned the No. 1 pick in 2017 and 2018, the Browns have finally reached the playoffs and feel like a competent franchise. Their wild-card win over the Pittsburgh Steelers last week was one of the most shocking victories in playoff history.

Their task Sunday will be to knock off the defending Super Bowl champions in Kansas City after the Chiefs had a week off to prepare for this game. It’s a David vs. Goliath story and the Chiefs have two Goliaths in head coach Andy Reid and QB Patrick Mahomes.

With all the added rest, look for the Chiefs to dominate this game from the opening kickoff. They should have no problem moving the ball on offense and scoring 35 or more points seems likely. For that reason, take the Chiefs to cover the double-digit spread.

Leg 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 (-105) at New Orleans Saints

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After two easy wins against the Buccaneers earlier this season, the Saints are 2.5-point favorites in this round of the playoffs; however, they will be without do-everything weapon Taysom Hill and backup RB Latavius Murray. While neither of those players are elite, they are two fewer weapons QB Drew Brees will have in his arsenal.

Tampa Bay is just playing so well on offense now that it’s hard to pick against the Bucs and QB Tom Brady should have a field day against this secondary and be able to score 30 or more points in this rematch.

Expect this game to be close and stay within 2 points.

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Leg 3: Over 52.5 in Buccaneers-Saints (-105)

Tampa Bay’s defense looks great on paper, but the Bucs got picked apart by Washington Football Team QB Taylor Heinicke in the wild-card round.

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While we expect Tampa Bay to win, look for them to give up close to 30 points to the Saints in New Orleans. That means the Over is a great bet.

DIVISIONAL ROUND PARLAY Bet $100 to earn a profit of $544.21

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