Sports Betting Mathematical Models
- Sports Betting Mathematical Models Definition
- Sports Betting Mathematical Models Model
- Football Betting Mathematical Model
- Excel Sports Betting Models
- Create Sports Betting Model
- Building A Sports Betting Model
How do you build a sports betting model? What steps are involved? What do you need to consider? Follow these steps to build your own quantitative model, and take your betting to the next level.
Specify the aim of your betting model. This appears simple, but many sports bettors miss the point. Building a complex sports betting model can be a very tough task for an average sports bettor. I am passionate about math, statistics and even more how to build a simple sports betting model, based on probabilistic method, that will have a profitable results. Sports betting models that I have created helped sports. Our Mathematical model generated by a computer algorithm, generated the best football predictions. All Computer Football Prediction are free with 4 betting tips each game 1x2, o2.5, double chace and BTTS. Visit my site for comprehensive breakdowns of all of the bets and strategies you see. Also read the latest football betting blog articles:www.topfootballbett.
We know successful bettors who have built a number of statistical betting models over the years, developing everything from a football betting model to a basketball betting model, a baseball betting.
What is a betting model?
In it's simplest form a sports betting model is a system that can identify unbiased reference points from where you can determine the probability for all outcomes in a particular game.
The model will ultimately be able to highlight profitable betting opportunities, by judging a team's true ability more accurately than a bookmaker.
However, building a sports betting model can be difficult and time consuming. There are various instructions and orders advised for you to follow when creating a model, which can complicate the process.
With that said, once you have created a successful betting model, it can show you opportunities that the general betting public simply wouldn't consider.
Let's begin.
For this example we use an approach similar to the Actuarial Control Cycle – a quantitative risk assessment employed by insurance companies. There are five main features:
- Defining the problem
- Building the solution
- Monitoring results
- Professionalism
- External forces
Step 1: Specify the aim of your betting model
This appears simple, but many sports bettors miss the point their betting model is trying to accomplish.
Once you have created a successful betting model, it can show you opportunities that the general betting public simply wouldn't consider.
Without an aim you could be overwhelmed with numbers and lose focus of your overall goals.
Although you may argue you can get the data first to see if there are any patterns, this would still need to be tested against a number of hypothesis, each with a different aim.
Therefore starting with a specific, rather than a generic aim, is strongly recommended.
Step 2: Select the metric
The next step is to formalise your investigation into numerical form by selecting a quantifiable metric.
These first two steps relate to defining the problem stage of the Actuarial Control Cycle.
Step 3: Collect, group and modify data
Every model needs data so you can integrate it into your algorithm. There are two ways of collecting data – by yourself, or by using other published data online.
Luckily, there is a plethora of data available on the Internet, some of which is free, while some websites offer a paid service.
Once you have the data, you may realise that there are queries that need to be taken care of.
If we are looking at Premier League teams for instance, should you consider all matches or just their league games? It's possible to make adjustments if the team in question had players missing, or had a mid-week Champions’ League clash.
This is where you can exercise your judgement, determined by what your aim is.
Step 4: Choosing the form of your model
This is where the mathematics comes into play given there are so many models to choose from or invent.
There is a plethora of data available on the Internet, some of which is free, while some websites offer a paid service.
We have proposed a number of models in the past and they can be as complex or as simple as you wish. Our recommendation is not to overcomplicate.
This step can be interchanged with step 3 as the data may lead you to use a particular model, or a particular model may require specific data.
Step 5: Dealing with assumptions
Each model will have a number of assumptions, and you should be aware of their limitations. You may forget to do this, but it's absolutely vital.
For example a significant contributor to the financial crisis in 2007-08 was the misuse of derivatives caused by a misunderstanding of assumptions in contracts such as Collateralised Debt Obligations and Credit Default Swaps.
Previously in this article we highlighted how averages and standard deviations assume events are normally distributed. This for example would need be tested.
Step 6: Build the sports betting model
The next step is to actually build the sports betting model. There are numerous tools to use including online calculators, Excel, MatLab, Java, R programming and VBA.
You don’t have to be a wiz at programming to build a sports betting model, but the more you understand the functionality, the better equipped you will become when testing and analysing the data.
Step 7: Test the model
You don’t have to be a wiz at programming to build a sports betting model, but the more you understand the functionality, the better equipped you will become when testing and analysing the data.
It's paramount that you test the efficiency of any sports betting model to understand how sensitive it is to the results.
In any case the results of the model may lead us to reconsider any of the previous steps.
Sports Betting Mathematical Models Definition
The key question as always is whether or not the model is making a profit? Therefore you’d need to test that – leading you to running through the cycle again.
Step 8: Monitor results
Assuming that an adequate model has been built and tested, it needs to be maintained as time progresses. This leads us back to the starting point – defining future aims.
Applied knowledge
Understanding the processes involved is paramount when learning how to build a sports betting model.
Quantitative modelling isn’t just about taking a model and applying it, there are a number of processes – not necessarily in the order stated – which should be completed.
Following this process won't guarantee a profit-making model, but it will ensure you are considering the fundamental aspects that are needed to build a new sports betting model.
For an example of how to build a betting model, click here.
Dominic Cortis is a lecturer with the Department of Mathematics at The University of Leicester; and an assistant lecturer at The University of Malta. He is an associate actuary and his research focuses on sports analytics as well as financial and betting derivatives.
You need an edge in the sports betting markets to make money.
Finding An Edge – Sports Betting And Betfair Trading
First off what is an edge in sports betting and trading?
An edge is the reason that you make money from sports betting.
A simple example of an edge that is well documented and used by many is matched betting and arbitrage. Matched betting involves using bookmaker promotions to make frequent profits. Arbitrage capitalizes on bookmakers being slow to move their odds allowing profit to be made on all outcomes.
However the trouble with these edges is that it isn’t easily scalable and it relies on soft bookmakers. Who eventually won’t want your business and limit you to pennies.
That leaves a lot of people searching for an edge that is sustainable over the long term. An edge that offers more scalability and the potential for larger profit.
But what processes can you use to find an edge?
Lets have look at some potential ways to find an edge in both sports betting and sports trading.
Past Data
One way of looking at finding an edge is to analyse past data. This may reveal profitable trends that potentially still exist in the current markets. Which then can lead to a profitable betting strategy.
Two big advocates of this type of analysis are Cassini. The man behind the sports betting blog green all over, who frequently puts up betting systems based on past profitable trends.
Jon Roberts the man behind the software Predictology. Is also a fan of using past data to look at building profitable betting strategies for the current betting markets.
Is there a downside to using past data?
Well just because something has happened in the past doesn’t guarantee it is going to happen in the future.
However it is certainly a good indicator to use and might highlight some area’s that could be exploitable.
Modelling
If you have an interest in sports betting. Then you will have probably come across a few mathematical models that people use to try and find value in the betting markets.
For those that are mathematically minded. Developing a sports betting model might be the answer to developing an edge.
It is thought that many of the largest betting syndicates in the world use mathematical modelling for sports betting.
Lets take a look at a few models which have been used to try and find value in sports betting.
Elo Ratings
The idea of Elo ratings is that each team has a rating. Stronger sides will be given a higher rating compared to weaker sides. For example Manchester United would be given a higher rating then Brighton.
Elo ratings are constantly changing, they are calculated based upon the results of matches. When two sides play, the winner of a match will gain a certain number of points in their rating. The losing team loses the same amount.
The number of points won or lost in a match will depend on the difference in the Elo ratings of the teams. By beating stronger teams a side will increase there points by more then by beating a weaker side.
Poisson Distribution
Poisson distribution is a mathematical concept. Used for translating mean averages into a probability for variable outcomes across a distribution.
This is used in football betting for example to calculate on average how likely a team are to score a certain number of goals.
Here are some good articles on Poisson distribution in betting.
Expected Goals
In football the expected goals model has risen in popularity lately. Being used quite often in post match analysis by television pundits.
Expected goals is a metric which assesses every chance, it is a way of assigning a value to every attempt at scoring a goal. Each attempt is given a value based based on the expectancy of how likely it is to be scored.
Sports Betting Mathematical Models Model
For example an effort from less than six yards out in front of goal was given a rating of 0.91xG. It was such a good chance it should be scored 91% of the time.
Using an expected goals model could indicate how “lucky” or “unlucky” a teams results have been. Which could indicate value on teams that may have been performing well on expected goals but not getting the results.
Live Pictures
They say a picture paints a thousand words. Often live pictures can tell you much more about a game then the in play stats.
We live in an age where there are free streams of football games all around the world. On a given day you can watch the Japanese league in the morning, the Romanian league in the afternoon and finish off with La Liga at night.
There are quite a few football traders for example that swear by trading only with live pictures.
Psychoff may be one of the best known football traders in the world. He has stated on his twitter account that he makes his goal alert trading decisions based on watching live games. Surprisingly also stating that he doesn’t use statistics for these trades.
With live pictures you can pick up on adjustments in tactics. In football games you can read the tempo and flow of a game. See the weather conditions, body language of players. Having live pictures can often give you a lot of extra information when deciding to make a bet.
Combined with knowledge of the sports and teams. Live pictures might be enough to give you a profitable edge in the markets.
Beating The Closing Odds
In sports betting. If you can consistently beat the closing odds at sharp bookmakers. Then its likely that you are consistently finding value.
Major sports betting markets are pretty efficient. There has been quite a few studies which have shown this using Pinnacle’s closing odds as an example.
Because they are so efficient if you are able to constantly beat the closing odds (after the inclusion of vig). Then you will most likely have found yourself a profitable betting system.
In fact the profitable sports betting tool Trademate is based on this very concept.
Trademate scans for odds across a high number of bookmakers. When it finds odds that are higher then those at the sharp bookmakers it advises a bet.
This is also known as value betting.
It is perhaps one of the simplest ways of finding value in the sports betting markets.
If you are looking for high turnover and a proven method of making money. Value betting is probably one of the easiest ways to do this.
The drawback to this style of betting is that it again relies on soft bookmakers.
Experiencing The Markets
This could probably be classed as using past data.
However specifically relating to Betfair trading I think it deserves its own section.
Experiencing the markets over and over can really help you see potential opportunities for profit.
I will use football as an example as this is the sport I trade the most.
A lot of my own pre match trading strategies were created by watching lots of market movements. Noting odds days in advance for games. Tracking what the odds were leading up to game day and eventually noting the closing odds.
Football Betting Mathematical Model
If you do this you start to see patterns and understand what moves a market pre match.
Team news is always going to have a big effect on the market. But by watching markets I also learnt that performances mid week for teams playing in Europe will effect prices for games at the weekend.
If there is a question mark on whether a key player is likely to start, early odds movement can often be a good indication on how likely they are to play or not. As people with this information already will get their bets on before its public knowledge.
Caan Berry has also stated that he records all the horse racing markets he trades. So that he can experience these markets again and build better judgments for future markets. Allowing him to react quicker if future markets trade in a similar way to one he has already experienced.
In Depth Knowledge
As noted earlier in this article. The markets with the most amount of money traded are usually the most efficient.
However odds makers don’t put a huge amount of attention on some of the sports/events that don’t attract the big money.
For example the odds in the Portuguese second division are not going to be as efficient as the Champions league. So for a hardcore fan of the Portuguese second division, value might be easy to spot at first glance.
In lesser known sports/leagues an in depth knowledge may be enough to give you a profitable edge.
Contrarian Betting
The sport of mixed martial arts is still fairly young. Betting on the UFC is growing and odds makers are getting better at pricing up fights.
However if you have an in depth knowledge of the sport then there is great value to be found.
Given that you don’t see fighters week in week out. Along with the promotion of UFC being akin to pro wrestling with a narrative often being written. Occassionally you see some lop sided odds as the betting public often follow the narrative being portrayed.
The best example of this is when Ronda Rousey fought Amanda Nunes.
Rousey was coming back after a year layoff on the back of vicious head kick loss. In a fight where she showed serious flaws in her fighting style.
Nunes was the new champion who had shown to be well rounded and was running through top level competition. On top of that she had shown she was an elite level striker, striking was Rousey’s biggest weakness.
All the media and promotion of the fight was behind Rousey comeback and somehow Nunes was odds of 2.8 as the defending champion come fight night.
The odds were way out of line due to the media being behind only one fighter.
Whenever the media are heavily behind one team/athlete. It is always worth looking at it from a contrarian point of view.
Summary
So we have looked at multiple approaches in finding an edge in the sports betting markets.
Depending on your personality and your own skill set some maybe more viable then others
Often a combination of the methods above will be used to find value.
Finding a long term edge in the Betfair trading or sports betting isn’t easy. But for those that do find them the rewards can be huge.
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